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The future of computing

Feb 16, 2012

By Kevin Cork - G4 Canada

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CESThe Consumer Electronics Show or CES consisted this year of 140,000 registered attendees with an estimated 210,000 total visitors to the Las Vegas area. It was 30,000 people larger than last year and is one of, if not the, largest conventions in Las Vegas. It runs four days, however it only took me half a day to realize that the bulk of the never-ending (actually 3100) displays consisted mostly of either: televisions, iPhone cases, USB sticks, headphones or android tablets.

Scattered amongst these were some amazing inventive products: robots, pocket speakers, software services, networking systems, solar cells, 3-D printers, automobile tech, photography equipment, and more iPhone cases. It was overwhelming and exhausting but served as a catharsis to allow me to fully accept and embrace the TRUE NERD that lives inside me.

Moreover, taken as a whole, it has given me a very clear vision of what we can expect from technology in the next few years. The over arching theme is one of connectivity. Phones talk to TVs, which talk to tablets, which talk to the fridge, which talk to your computer, which talk to your car, which talk to your phone. Notice at no point does anything talk to you. That's because the "Internet of things" may soon mean there are more items connecting to each other on the Internet than there are humans connecting to each other. How this will either empower and enhance or inconvenience and expose all of us going forward, has yet to be determined.

CES More immediately, I found the most exciting developments to be happening in what is currently conventional computing and networking, possibly this was because so much of this is still only the potential benefit. For example, it was difficult for me to decipher the benefits of all the different flavors possible of smart TV and how this would work in my future massively interconnected home network. But a new operating system for my laptop set to release in the next six months is something I can sink my virtual teeth into.

The fastest-growing sector of hardware is, of course, the tablet. However, for most of us, how we actually USE a tablet is still being defined.

The iPad has captured over 75% of the tablet market for several reasons. Setting aside any debates about marketing savvy and artsy design or aesthetic discussions, the iPad has exploded in popularity, partially it was seen as a natural extension of the iPhone and to a lesser extent, any smartphone. It is, from an app users point of view, a large iPhone.

In other words, people already knew what to do with it. You download games, photo apps and fart noise generators. Simple. This created a virtuous circle that worked in Apple's favor. People bought the iPad, because they were familiar with the format. App developers found a new market for their apps. This in turn led to more apps being developed, which in turn led to more innovation in those apps, which created more things that the iPad could be used for, which led to more iPad sales. And so on. Apple was genius in capitalizing on the popularity and hence familiarity of their iPhone and other iPhone style phones.

CES Microsoft has been forced to take a different route with their tablet strategy. Their first generation phones did not sell very well. Even the much improved Win7phones have only captured a small percentage of the market and certainly not enough to build a base for tablet sales. Instead, Microsoft has approached the tablet market from the opposite end of the spectrum. Instead of the tablet being a hybrid of its phone, the new Windows 8 tablets are an extension of their desktop computers. To that end, Microsoft has created an OS that runs exactly the same on either a tablet computer, a laptop computer or a desktop computer. It works the same whether you use a keyboard, mouse or touchscreen. This is a natural evolution for tablet computing and certainly the next generation.

This means that like Apple, Microsoft tablet product can now appeal to its largest existing customer base, specifically in Microsoft's case, not the phone consumers but the desktop, laptop and netbook consumers. Further, because of the corresponding (possibly co-ordinated) Intel Ultrabook initiative, Microsoft can, like Google with Android, leverage the power and resources of a large number of hardware manufacturers. Dell, Samsung, Asus, Acer, HP were all readying Win8 tablets or slates that would run the exact same software as the new Ultrabook laptops each was also releasing.

CES The other key aspect of the iPad's appeal is that the large number of apps available means that each tablet becomes effectively a device built for your specific needs. Microsoft finally understand that, understands that change that is happening to computing devices. The Windows 8 tablets (and Ultrabooks) incorporate the simplicity of apps with more sophisticated and all-encompassing programs like Office. This is also the next step in the evolution for both apps and conventional software because it fuses the two types of software into a single, connected and easily personalized computing package. Further to this, not only will tablets be running the exact same software as future laptops and desktops, there is also a high degree of compatibility with both Windows 8 phones, and the Xbox, which has already evolved from a game console to a home entertainment centre.

This means that Microsoft has also embraced but refined in a subtle way the 'closed system' marketing strategy Apple has used over the last few years (since the introduction of the iPhone.) Unlike the current Apple universe where you buy a Apple computer or tablet running Apple-controlled software or apps, listening to Apple format music bought from an Apple-owned music store while taking a break to talk on your Apple-built phone, Microsoft has, by necessity, opened its Win7/8 cosmos to embrace many third party hardware and software partners but all of them still tightened up to remain functioning in the new evolved Windows world.

To cement this new World even for current or older computers, Windows 8 has been designed to need less computing power than Windows 7. Microsoft has finally listened to its critics and now broken its former Wintel upgrade cycle where each new version of the software needed new hardware. Obviously this also needed since the tablets are going to have less raw computing power than even a basic laptop.

CES There are still of course, many things that can go wrong with this strategy. Microsoft is certainly perceived by many as the underdog when it comes to "cool computing". They need to keep app developers and hardware manufacturers happy. They need to avoid Android's problem of inconsistent experience, and the new system still needs to be able to run the huge variety of software that is available for Windows computers. Though the Mac computer never became very popular, one of the upsides for Apple was that it was more easily able to control and smooth out the user experience. Microsoft will have to work very closely with Intel and manufacturers to keep the consumer's overall experience more cohesive and reliable. Further. Apple is set to release its third version of the iPad. Though this next one is expected to be simply a refinement and enhancement of the existing iPad experience, Apple is certainly no slouch when it comes to design and usability. Android and RIM have also introduced cool new OSs for their tablets, either of which could also catch the consumer's eye. But none of these competitors have yet to create a single operating system that can run on any computer hardware. And that step is essential for the aforementioned 'universal Connectivity' to blossom into reality.

In the end, however, what is more interesting is not whether the Windows 8 tablet can challenge or unseat the iPad but that the work Microsoft has done to bring the tablet to its first evolution. Like other previous milestones, such as the first Blackberry with its e-mail or the first iPhone/iPad with their apps universe, the Windows 8 tablet re-defines the tablet computer from an expensive novelty item to an actual replacement for your current computer.

 
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About G4 in Canada
G4 Canada (formerly TechTV Canada) launched in September 2001. G4 is the one and only television station that is plugged into every dimension of games, gear, gadgets and gigabytes. Owned Rogers Media Inc., the channel airs more than 24 original series. G4 is available on digital cable and satellite. For more information, see www.g4tv.ca.